I have a big election prediction:
Regardless of what happens next Tuesday, Trump will claim an early victory, and then cast serious doubt on the counting at the end.
Because it’s exactly what he did four years ago. He did this because he saw his fanbase as “useful idiots” (to borrow a phrase from another politician from the past).
Anyone with a decent education on the electoral process knows about red mirage and blue shift. It happens every U.S. election. It goes likes this:Most rural areas are red, and with less populations, their votes are counted quicker.
Most cities are blue, with higher populations, so their votes take more time to count.
So, naturally, Republican votes will take an early lead in the counting, followed by a more sudden uptick on Democrat votes. Only when all the votes are tallied will the result be clear.
But if you don’t know about this phenomenon, and you’re very impressionable, you can be misled into thinking that something fishy is happening when the big cities start turning in their votes.
So be very careful, and instruct others in the anomalies you have learned about the election process, because past behavior is a really good prediction of future behavior.
Sadly, there are a lot of idiots out there, and they are very useful to those who need to manipulate them.
U.S. elections are still very sound. The primaries are full of rigged nonsense, and social media is full of interfering gossip, but our voting system is actually envied by less free people around the world for how reliable it is. If the country is falling apart, don’t undermine what you have left if you want to preserve it.